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Signal TheoryMay 28, 2026· 5 min

anatomy of a HIGH signal

What separates a tier-1 alert from a routine award — and why the difference shows up in the first 60 seconds of the trade window.

A HIGH-tier signal is not a big number. It is a configuration.

The configuration is this: a public contractor wins a piece of work that is either (a) a new program, (b) materially above their run-rate, or (c) the first concrete pull-through against a previously-disclosed ceiling. Any one of those is enough to move thesis. All three together is the kind of alert that has a tradeable window measured in minutes.

Most retail-facing tools score on contract value alone. That misses the point. A $1.2B delivery order against a known ceiling is a calendar event. A $78M new program win is news. The dollar amounts are inverted, but the second one moves the stock.

Sentrix's classifier weighs three things before tier assignment: novelty of the contractor-program pairing, sizing relative to disclosed revenue, and whether the award is incremental or scheduled. If all three lean toward surprise, you get HIGH. If two of three lean known, you get MED. If everything is routine, the signal still ships — at LOW — so you have the receipt.

What you do with that read is your call. We're not in the business of telling you when to enter. We're in the business of making sure you see the configuration the moment it prints.

↳ DisclaimerSentrix Signal is not a registered investment advisor. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice. All data is sourced exclusively from public government databases including SAM.gov, FPDS, SEC EDGAR, Senate eFD, USPTO, congress.gov, and Senate LDA disclosures.

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